When betting on tenis, it is important to have a good understanding of how players’ form and performance fluctuate. This can be achieved by analyzing the results of previous matches and paying close attention to player’s injuries. It is also crucial to know the conditions under which a match will be played. In this way, you can avoid the most common mistakes and make better predictions. For example, it is generally not a good idea to place bets on a player who has recently played an event in the same weather conditions as the one you are going to bet on.
Another aspect to take into account is that top-level tennis players are not as motivated for small tournaments as they are for Masters and Grand Slam events. This is because they play in these events in order to earn prize money and fulfil their professional obligations. In such circumstances, the odds proposed by bookmakers are often inflated and it can be difficult to determine which players are worth placing a bet on.
One of the most popular approaches for predicting a tennis match is to use regression-based models. These include logistic regression models and analytical network process models. These models incorporate data such as a player’s ranking, the age of the players, and certain information derived from bookmaker odds. However, they do not seem to be able to outperform simple betting odds-implied forecasts.
Another approach is to use paired comparison models. These models aggregate historical matches between players in an effort to estimate their strength rankings. Several studies have compared these models to logistic regression-based predictions and found them to perform better. However, the ability of these models to predict future match outcomes has not been tested against achievable betting returns.
When analyzing a tennis match, it is crucial to look at the player’s head-to-head record. This includes the number of wins, losses, and draws they have against each other. It is also helpful to see how many times they have played on different surfaces and at which tournaments. This will give you a more complete picture of the players’ abilities and their consistency over time.
The most recent head-to-head match between Simona Halep and Karolina Pliskova is shown below. As can be seen from the screenshot, Halep is a clear favorite with a starting price of 1.44 (which suggests a 69% implied probability of winning). However, this does not mean that she is a safe bet as she has struggled with injury problems this season and was beaten by Emma Raducanu in the US Open final in 2022.
Moreover, the head-to-head record of the two players provides valuable insights into their relative strengths and weaknesses. For instance, the number of hard-court wins by both players will help you decide which type of surface to play on in a particular match. This is an especially useful tool for a player who has won only one of their last three matches on hard courts. tenis prediction